Florida State’s Jameis Winston.
In College Football America, our preview publication, I wrote about the Heisman frontrunners and sleepers, from my perspective.
This is my third update in which I eliminate candidates. After Week 6 I whittled down the list from 30 candidates to 25 candidates, then in Week 8 I shaved it down to 20 candidates. Now, we’re trimming the list down to 14 players. We have a frontrunner now and tiers of players that have legitimate and not-so-legitimate chances to win the trophy. I tell you why below. In parenthesis you’ll find what tier they were listed in for our last update.
Our leader hasn’t changed.
THE LEADER
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon (Week 8: The Leader): Well, Mariota can’t hurt himself this week because the Ducks are off. But Thursday night is a different story. The Ducks face Stanford in the biggest obstacle yet to their undefeated season and bid to play in the Pac-12 Championship game and, theoretically, the BCS National Championship game. Mariota remains the player to beat right now. UCLA did end his streak of 300-yard passing games a week ago, but that hardly matters to Mariota’s steamrolling candidacy right now. Now, a loss to Stanford could change that. And even if the Ducks get past Stanford, well the schedule doesn’t slow down. Utah beat Stanford. Arizona has the nation’s leading rusher in Ka’Deem Carey. And, of course, the season concludes with the Civil War against Oregon State. And, if the Ducks get through all of that they must beat someone in the Pac-12 Championship game. If Mariota can get through all of that and continue to put up great numbers, it will be nearly impossible to wrestle the Heisman away from him.
Stats: 2,281 yards passing, 20 TDs, 0 INTs; 511 yards rushing, 9 TDs.
Tier 1
These guys should be in New York City in December. They’re legitimate candidates to win the award now and have the ability to overtake the frontrunner. Note: candidates are in alphabetical order.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville (Week 8: Tier 1): His candidacy has weakened a bit since the loss to UCF, but Bridgewater bounced back with a tremendous game against USF the following week, throwing just four incompletions (25-of-29) and gaining 344 passing yards and 3 scores. He has an advantage here in that the Cardinals have four games remaining against American Athletic Conference teams and he should continue to put up great numbers. He also has an advantage in that the American doesn’t have a conference title game, so he can’t do any damage to himself in a 13th game. The Cards are idle this week, but two big games remain – vs. Houston on Nov. 16 and at Cincinnati on Dec. 5. Either is capable of beating the Cardinals and, by extension, destroy Bridgewater’s chances of getting to New York City.
Stats: 2,557 yards passing, 23 TDs, 2 INTs; 19 yards rushing, 0 TDs.
Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M (Week 8: Tier 1): Manziel is hoping that you’ll forget about his titular offseason. The numbers are sure helping. He threw for four touchdowns and rushed for two more against UTEP on Saturday night. With three games remaining it’s not a certainty that Manziel will match his mammoth numbers of a year ago, but he should come close. And that’s where the debate would begin. What makes this season different than last season? Sure, the Aggies beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa last season and lost to them in College Station this season. But the Aggies hung 42 points on the Tide and Manziel was the reason why. The Aggies won’t reach the SEC title game, but they could cash in on a BCS bowl game if things break right. Plus, there’s a debate raging right now that Manziel is doing more with less this season. The players that have returned to defend their Heisman lately haven’t approached their numbers of the previous year. Manziel appears as if he might, and if he does, well, can you hold his offseason against him?
Stats: 2,867 yards passing, 26 TDs, 8 INTs; 564 yards rushing, 8 TDs.
Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor (Week 8: Tier 1): Petty is another player who was watching this weekend. He’s thrown for 2,453 yards, 19 touchdowns and 1 interception, but the last two months feel like preamble. The rubber of Bryce’s Heisman candidacy will meet the road the next five games, starting with Thursday’s showdown with Oklahoma at home on Fox. After that it’s Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas. If Petty and Bears survive all of that, then we may be talking about more than a Heisman Trophy. Running the table doesn’t guarantee Petty the award. But it could get him a seat at the table in New York City.
Stats: 2,453 yards passing, 19 TDs, 1 INTs; 73 yards rushing, 6 TDs.
Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State (Week 8: Tier 1): Winston is still on the “Just-Happy-To-Be-Here” train and has the demeanor of a guy that doesn’t quite get what’s happening here. Maybe that’s a good thing for him and the Seminoles, who remain undefeated after beating Miami in a battle of Top 10 teams. That’s two wins over Top 10 teams in three games and Winston has numbers comparable to the best quarterbacks on this list. Sure, he’s a redshirt freshman. But guess was last year’s winner was? Yep, redshirt freshman. These guys are going to start getting younger, so you better get used to it. Plus, like Mariota, he has no baggage.
Stats: 2,502 yards passing, 24 TDs, 6 INTs; 153 yards rushing, 3 TDs.
Tier 2
These players could be in New York come December. They have the numbers and the exposure to do it. What do they lack? Perhaps it’s that “Heisman Moment” we all hear about at the end of the season.
Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson (Week 8: Tier 2): Boyd has kept himself in the conversation with his performance the past two games against Maryland and Virginia, but that loss to Florida State has enough stink to linger for the rest of the season. The more the Seminoles win, the bigger the loss will look on Boyd’s resume. He stays on this tier for now, but games against Georgia Tech and South Carolina could put an end to it – or elevate him back to Tier 1.
Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin (Week 8: Tier 2): Gordon was rolling until the Badgers went to Iowa and the Hawkeyes held him to 62 yards. Granted, the Hawkeyes did a great job on the Badgers overall. But that one hurt if you’re Gordon. The remaining schedule looks forgiving, though, starting with BYU this Saturday. But will gaudy numbers be enough at this point, because all of the players in Tier 1 have those?
A.J. McCarron, QB, Alabama (Week 8: Tier 3): It’s November so it’s AJ time. I’ve said all along that it’s not about numbers for McCarron, it’s about his body of work. That’s what will get him in the conversation if the Tide continues to win. After LSU this Saturday, there are two quiet games ahead before what appears to be a huge Iron Bowl matchup with Auburn.
Bishop Sankey, RB, Washington (Week 6: Tier 2): After he gained 22 yards against Arizona State he destroyed Cal for 241 yards and 2 scores. That’s more like it. He has seven 100-yard games, two 200-yard games and 4 multi-touchdown games. The season ends with Colorado, UCLA, Oregon State and the Apple Bowl against Washington State. It would be tough to clear 2,000 rushing yards. But if he keeps putting up great games he’s the most likely running back to make it to New York.
Tier 3
These players are the most likely to be eliminated in our next update:
Odell Beckham, WR, LSU (Week 8: Tier 3): Beckham popped off six catches for 204 yards against Furman, which you expect. LSU had the weekend off before facing Alabama this Saturday. If he chooses to leave school early he looks like a lead-pipe lock first-round pick. But in this Heisman race he can’t get much traction. All-purpose players have it harder than running backs these days. A big game on a big stage against the Tide might help him leap into Tier 2.
Jordan Lynch, QB, Northern Illinois (Week 8: Tier 3): He’s the most likely non-BCS player to make it to New York (apologies, Fresno State’s Derek Carr). Since the Huskies entered MAC play he’s been dominant. Note that his passing numbers don’t look the part. But in the last three games Lynch has rushed for 534 yards and 8 scores. In fact, Lynch has four games of 100 yards rushing or more and has failed to clear at least 60 yards rushing just once this season. The bad news is that most Heisman voters expect their quarterbacks to pass the ball a little more. It’s hard to ignore the fact that he has better rushing numbers through the last three weeks than most of the quarterbacks on this list have this season, though.
Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor (Week 8: Tier 3): Former Baylor alum Robert Griffin III tweeted a question Saturday asking if he could split his Heisman ballot between Petty and Seastrunk. He may not have to. Seastrunk’s momentum is slowing down, even though he has seven 100-yard rushing games so far this season. Like I wrote before the season when I designated Seastrunk as one of my sleepers – it’s hard for a back at Baylor to get what he needs to win this award. And I’m being proven right.
Aaron Murray, QB, Georgia (Week 8: Tier 2): The win over Florida shows the Bulldogs still believe they have something to play for. A forgiving schedule and a potential Missouri slide could put the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game. Even at that, I had to drop him down to Tier 3. Murray needs a lot of help at this point to get to New York City.
Ka’Deem Carey, RB, Arizona (Week 8: Tier 4): Carey is actually the nation’s leading rusher on a per-game basis. He’s rushed for at least 119 yards in every game this season, but is one game down to everyone thanks to a one-game suspension. Like Manziel, he had a checkered offseason and likely won’t be able to overcome it. But a big game over Cal (152 yards) keeps him in the race for one more update.
Out
These are the players that, at this point, I feel are out of the Heisman race:
Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State (Week 8: Tier 2): He has fantastic numbers, but he’s slowed down the last two weeks and the Beavers have lost two straight. If he sticks around for his senior year, look out.
Marion Grice, RB, Arizona State (Week 8: Tier 4): His versatility is off the charts. I think he’s a lock to win the Hornung award and he’s going to make an NFL team very happy. But he’s not in the conversation anymore.
Duke Johnson, RB, Miami (FL) (Week 8: Tier 3): He’s versatile, he’s tough and he’s money. He rushed for 184 yards against Georgia Tech and 168 yards against Wake Forest. But he broke his ankle against Florida State and his season is over. He was on Tier 3 until the injury.
Sean Mannion, QB, Oregon State (Week 8: Tier 3): See Cooks.
Zach Mettenberger, QB, LSU (Week 8: Tier 4): There is no more gas left in the tank for Mettenberger’s candidacy.
Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State (Week 8: Tier 4): They’re still undefeated but Miller’s injury issues in September put him in a real bind when it came to the Heisman.
